are the powerful military elites who initiated the protest and decided the outcome of the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia, but in Libya will be the tribal power structures, less clear and complex, which define the future of President Muammar Khadafy, who is losing the support of clans each passing day.
The Libyan dictator always relied on his small-tribe Qathathfa to join the ranks of military units and to ensure their safety and the government, but experts say that many believe will be sufficient shielding to stay in power.
Khadafy believed to have all the chiefs on their side, but with the start of the protests, things changed a clan after another was giving back.
In Libya there are about 150 clans and experts say that 22 groups in eastern Cyrenaica were united almost generalized anti-government protesters.
Among the new leaders of the area would be released, former Interior Minister Yunis Abdul Fatah, which belongs to Al-Obeidat clan, settled in the east.
But the first tribe withdrew its support to Kadafy in uprisings in the western region. The "betrayal" of Warfalla clan, who have about a million people ( one-sixth of the population of Libya ), unleashed a maelstrom of desertions and the Libyan leader could not stop. Change sides of the tribal leaders explained, according to experts, both convinced that Kadafy and his style of leadership have simply unsustainable, such as fear of being on the wrong side in a post-Khadafy.
"What happens in Libya is a shame, a genocide to the Libyan people" , said Abu jussives clan Awlad a website opponent.
Analysts believe that tribal leaders play an important role in post-Kadafy stage, since there is little political structures capable of articulating a democratic system. "In Libya is the tribal system, rather than military, to decide the balance of power," said London Alia Brahimi, head of North Africa program at the London School of Economics.Khadafy based its power in the subjection of the clans, a strategy that worked as his authority was not questioned. But after the uprising, the Libyan leader's former allies are now seen merely as "traitors."
Many are already developing plans for a post-Kadafy in a scenario of a country divided into an eastern and a western similar to the anarchy that exists in Somalia for years going through a reformed republic. From there would come a government in Tripoli and one in Benghazi but ignored it as in Somalia where clans control places isolated because there is no general agreement, not having a leader that brings together leaders, so what the role of Islamists is fleeting, but both the insurgency and violence has taken a state of war, and control the eastern rebaldes trying to move towards the Libyan capital, with the support of generals and colonels in the army who defected and refuse to yield to Kadafy resign while he still balks, but the purse is shrinking increasingly losing control of the country.
AP, AFP, EFE DNA.
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