future economic forecast for South America Argentina For the next 30 years South America will be positioned as the economic hub of most development plans with respect the Asia Pacific, and would have an emerging middle class of 1200 million people of which half are Chinese, and other Latin American countries with a large majority of Brazilians and Africans, as a growing demand for food and per capita consumption with an increase of 6.4% per annum will be maintained after 2014.
For the Southern Cone, Brazil will be the economic engine with concentrated production and exports to Europe, Asia and America, having won the foreign trade after the economic crisis through better to learn to diversify their markets.
This is a strategic game in production and also foreseeable difficulties have expected that by 2030 41% of water reserves in Asia will be used.
Meeting the demand for food in coming years will need to add 120 million of hectares of arable land to sustainable water resources and thus considered to 9 countries, six of whom are from Latin America such as Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Uruguay and Paraguay and three Africans are Angola, Congo and Sudan.
The operating director of International Trade Institute Foundation Standard Bank considers to be worked out with a positive outlook warning that the trends is that more people join the global economic competition in recent decades and therefore both consumers and entrepreneurs traajadores live in big cities with the highest purchasing power in middle class, and they demand food and other consumer goods, and these trends are not just for Asia but also other regions like Latin America will be their guests.
For China seek supplies from other markets for their needs and need to control their sources to buy more land, setting up their businesses with their people and emphasizing better customs control. This is because need to create jobs to bring new products to their social and cultural preferences. For this export their commodities will be easy, but climbing the value chain of goods required of companies operating in our country, with a sustained effort of production technology and organization with an adequate macroeconomic and political stability.
Many will know to take this condition as neighboring countries as an open challenge to work, innovation and teamwork with the Argentines.
By 2050 the population will have risen to 9,000 Millom and 90% of this increase will occur in China, India, Russia and sub-Saharan Africa World Bank estimated.
Research by FLACSO believes it will be deficient model export only raw materials, and can be held if no distribution policy as does Norway's oil, but would not be the same for Argentina where the trade surplus in the hands of State and production in private hands, if that does not change and will create conflicts in the distribution.
Since the industrial revolution in 1930, Argentina is able to produce competitively which requires its economy and export market Asia as it does its commodities Norway, Australia and Canada with a growing diversification that improved the competitiveness of their products, while we use a defensive strategy with which we must aspire to become the leading producer and exporter in the world of food to have 28% of fresh water, mineral reserves and energy resources and encourage external projects wishing to settle in the country.
energy integration, and financial will to tackle poverty, exclusion and poverty to attract investment that demand skilled labor.
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in Peru are taking advantage of agribusiness development to attract foreign investment rules clear and coherent policy. In the ECLAC meeting left one thing clear:
"The region will do well if the world is doing well" not only to Asia and India because Mercosur sales grow 25.7% in 2010/11, and South America would then signal that doing things right, the world will look better.
A projection of growth for the long-term production level will increase the regional markets, stimulate the complexity of the industrial sector to make it more relevant to the country. Far from a point overly optimistic and dependent Asia is a promising future, to smile at the East but will to arbitrate the smiles are durable.
Brazil is the other regional thrust engine that pulls the economy in the region to diversify the markets to look to Asia despite being central to Europe and the U.S. in its exports to reach 55% of foreign trade.
since 2003 when he took Lula is Brazil's foreign trade growing by 2005 to U $ S 118,000 million in 2008 reached 198,000 million U $ S and 2010 to reach 180,000 million U $ S, and thus China became to be the main destination of exports leaving the U.S. and Argentina.
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up Brazilian Commodities 43.4% of its exports compared with 40.6% for manufactured products exported to America and South Africa, Algeria, Libya and Egypt, but also
Mercosur trade priority in the region.
"Brazil is not the China of Latin America, at least not yet, because the trade and capital flows in the region is limited," said Sergio Valderrama , Moody's analyst and author of the report. "However, if Brazil's economic performance becomes a push factor, could shed positive effects that could contribute to the strengthening of sovereign ratings of the region in the coming years. "
Although the economies of Latin America are not as open nor as integrated as the Asian regional level, said the analyst, this condition is gradually changing despite the Asian giant became the first half of 2010 in the largest investor in Brazil. Chinese chips bet on land, mines, and gas exploration in the steel sector. So the Chinese challenge in Brazil is focused on raw materials export gestate for use in producing finished goods manufactured.
China policy is focused on producing jobs in the country using foreign investment to secure raw materials to increase their levels of production and not rely on the export of commodities that are more risky.
Trade liberalization in Latin America increased to 55% of GDP in 2006 - 2009 of around 40% at the end of 1990, which is still below the mark of 110% in Asia.
"The economic boom in Brazil has now turned to the greater macroeconomic stability and growth prospects over the medium term, could have direct and indirect positive effects in other South American countries due to the large size of its economy," said Valderrama.
Brazil's GDP of U.S. $ 2.200 billion exceeds the GDP of 1.500 billion for the rest of South America.
The direct impact of Brazil and its neighbors includes higher levels of marketing goods and services and foreign direct investment, says Moody's report, while the indirect effect includes improved market sentiment about the region in financial markets international, and the fact that Brazil is a role model in how good and stable economic policies.
"Neighboring countries are closely watching Brazil," Valderrama said.
"The appeal of Brazil is reinforced by the leadership that emanates from President Lula da Silva and the success of their economic policies, which is likely to continue virtually unchanged with the new government of Dilma Russoff. " Finally, the analyst continued, the leadership role rather than playing Brazil in the region could serve to counter the political influence of countries have engaged in confrontational governing style and unorthodox economic policies.
The report titled, "Brazil's Positive Spillover Effects in South America," is available at Moodys.com
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